New Seat Details - Truro and Newquay

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Truro and Newquay been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Party	Implied 2017 Votes	Implied 2017 Share
CON	28,713	48.7%
LAB	19,289	32.7%
LIB	9,926	16.8%
Green	580	1.0%
UKIP	469	0.8%
CON Majority	9,424	16.0%

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

Truro and Newquay: Map

List of old seats forming part of Truro and Newquay

Old seat: Camborne and Redruth

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Camborne and Redruth, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Camborne and Redruth				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Cornwall	Camborne Pendarves	3,049	Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth	1,101	902	96	0	35	0	0	0	2,134
Cornwall	Camborne Roskear	3,261	Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth	1,220	1,248	115	0	38	0	0	0	2,621
Cornwall	Camborne Trelowarren	3,036	Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth	1,116	1,140	117	0	99	0	0	0	2,472
Cornwall	Camborne Treslothan	2,887	Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth	998	1,135	192	0	139	0	0	0	2,464
Cornwall	Camborne Treswithian	2,810	Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth	989	1,049	89	0	32	0	0	0	2,159
Cornwall	Carharrack, Gwennap and St Day	2,393	Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth	848	757	78	0	104	0	0	0	1,787
Cornwall	Constantine, Mawnan and Budock	3,656	Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth	1,763	789	95	0	38	0	0	0	2,685
Cornwall	Crowan and Wendron	1,868	St Ives	708	569	61	0	22	0	0	0	1,360
Cornwall	Four Lanes	3,305	Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth	1,189	1,183	130	0	43	0	0	0	2,545
Cornwall	Gwinear-Gwithian and St Erth	2,416	St Ives	914	717	106	0	59	0	0	0	1,796
Cornwall	Hayle North	3,387	St Ives	1,263	1,269	131	0	49	0	0	0	2,712
Cornwall	Hayle South	3,107	St Ives	1,131	1,096	119	0	42	0	0	0	2,388
Cornwall	Illogan	3,509	Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth	1,249	1,079	310	0	39	0	0	0	2,677
Cornwall	Lanner and Stithians	3,640	Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth	1,388	1,164	122	0	45	0	0	0	2,719
Cornwall	Mabe, Perranarworthal and St Gluvias	2,709	Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth	1,141	909	325	0	42	0	0	0	2,417
Cornwall	Mount Hawke and Portreath	3,447	Truro and Newquay	1,134	1,011	387	0	46	0	0	0	2,578
Cornwall	Pool and Tehidy	3,001	Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth	973	1,249	92	0	34	0	0	0	2,348
Cornwall	Redruth Central	2,792	Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth	1,130	898	104	0	31	0	0	0	2,163
Cornwall	Redruth North	4,210	Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth	1,373	1,853	141	0	53	0	0	0	3,420
Cornwall	Redruth South	2,893	Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth	995	1,159	114	0	37	0	0	0	2,305
Cornwall	St Agnes	418	Truro and Newquay	157	110	41	0	6	0	0	0	314
Cornwall	St Keverne and Meneage	474	St Ives	220	137	13	0	18	0	0	0	388
	Total	62,268		23,000	21,423	2,978	0	1,051	0	0	0	48,452

The full details of these calculations are given on the Camborne and Redruth seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: St Austell and Newquay

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of St Austell and Newquay, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: St Austell and Newquay				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Cornwall	Bugle	2,393	Bodmin and St Austell	876	518	536	0	0	0	0	0	1,930
Cornwall	Fowey and Tywardreath	3,167	Bodmin and St Austell	1,112	542	718	0	0	0	0	0	2,372
Cornwall	Mevagissey	3,086	Bodmin and St Austell	1,087	809	320	0	0	0	0	0	2,216
Cornwall	Mount Charles	3,219	Bodmin and St Austell	1,346	838	365	0	0	0	0	0	2,549
Cornwall	Newlyn and Goonhavern	584	Truro and Newquay	280	101	57	0	0	0	0	0	438
Cornwall	Newquay Central	2,534	Truro and Newquay	792	627	699	0	0	0	0	0	2,118
Cornwall	Newquay Pentire	2,936	Truro and Newquay	995	565	645	0	0	0	0	0	2,205
Cornwall	Newquay Treloggan	2,902	Truro and Newquay	1,072	604	617	0	0	0	0	0	2,293
Cornwall	Newquay Tretherras	2,817	Truro and Newquay	964	504	488	0	0	0	0	0	1,956
Cornwall	Newquay Treviglas	2,956	Truro and Newquay	1,013	738	518	0	0	0	0	0	2,269
Cornwall	Par and St Blazey Gate	3,016	Bodmin and St Austell	938	540	604	0	0	0	0	0	2,082
Cornwall	Penwithick and Boscoppa	3,309	Bodmin and St Austell	1,077	675	734	0	0	0	0	0	2,486
Cornwall	Probus, Tregony and Grampound	516	Truro and Newquay	213	109	55	0	0	0	0	0	377
Cornwall	Roche	2,831	Bodmin and St Austell	1,150	673	284	0	0	0	0	0	2,107
Cornwall	Roseland	77	Truro and Newquay	33	15	8	0	0	0	0	0	56
Cornwall	St Austell Bay	3,608	Bodmin and St Austell	1,508	555	303	0	0	0	0	0	2,366
Cornwall	St Austell Bethel	3,499	Bodmin and St Austell	1,181	727	676	0	0	0	0	0	2,584
Cornwall	St Austell Gover	3,055	Bodmin and St Austell	1,329	806	344	0	0	0	0	0	2,479
Cornwall	St Austell Poltair	3,256	Bodmin and St Austell	962	728	636	0	0	0	0	0	2,326
Cornwall	St Blazey	2,986	Bodmin and St Austell	969	864	692	0	0	0	0	0	2,525
Cornwall	St Columb Major	3,432	Truro and Newquay	1,398	805	569	0	0	0	0	0	2,772
Cornwall	St Dennis and Nanpean	3,112	Truro and Newquay	1,338	863	340	0	0	0	0	0	2,541
Cornwall	St Enoder	3,236	Truro and Newquay	1,372	772	336	0	0	0	0	0	2,480
Cornwall	St Mawgan and Colan	2,799	Truro and Newquay	1,350	360	225	0	0	0	0	0	1,935
Cornwall	St Mewan	2,967	Bodmin and St Austell	1,081	486	516	0	0	0	0	0	2,083
Cornwall	St Stephen-In-Brannel	3,456	Bodmin and St Austell	1,417	890	359	0	0	0	0	0	2,666
	Total	71,749		26,853	15,714	11,644	0	0	0	0	0	54,211

The full details of these calculations are given on the St Austell and Newquay seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Truro and Falmouth

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Truro and Falmouth, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Truro and Falmouth				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Cornwall	Carharrack, Gwennap and St Day	1,237	Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth	429	402	97	25	29	0	0	0	982
Cornwall	Chacewater, Kenwyn and Baldhu	2,914	Truro and Newquay	1,411	736	217	42	18	0	0	0	2,424
Cornwall	Falmouth Arwenack	2,638	Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth	1,246	690	269	22	27	0	0	0	2,254
Cornwall	Falmouth Boslowick	3,591	Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth	1,121	1,104	579	68	26	0	0	0	2,898
Cornwall	Falmouth Penwerris	3,092	Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth	948	1,545	287	62	32	0	0	0	2,874
Cornwall	Falmouth Smithick	2,964	Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth	993	1,428	479	25	44	0	0	0	2,969
Cornwall	Falmouth Trescobeas	3,363	Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth	1,049	1,350	301	73	76	0	0	0	2,849
Cornwall	Feock and Playing Place	3,649	Truro and Newquay	1,798	832	323	24	22	0	0	0	2,999
Cornwall	Ladock, St Clement and St Erme	3,410	Truro and Newquay	1,511	802	316	24	51	0	0	0	2,704
Cornwall	Mabe, Perranarworthal and St Gluvias	1,005	Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth	414	329	181	20	9	0	0	0	953
Cornwall	Newlyn and Goonhavern	3,072	Truro and Newquay	1,467	763	232	22	19	0	0	0	2,503
Cornwall	Penryn East and Mylor	3,904	Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth	1,344	1,171	646	66	33	0	0	0	3,260
Cornwall	Penryn West	3,239	Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth	981	1,206	686	68	28	0	0	0	2,969
Cornwall	Perranporth	3,455	Truro and Newquay	1,358	1,090	320	27	31	0	0	0	2,826
Cornwall	Probus, Tregony and Grampound	2,620	Truro and Newquay	967	820	223	56	17	0	0	0	2,083
Cornwall	Roseland	2,687	Truro and Newquay	1,055	813	206	54	16	0	0	0	2,144
Cornwall	St Agnes	3,092	Truro and Newquay	1,098	737	590	17	27	0	0	0	2,469
Cornwall	Threemilestone and Gloweth	3,072	Truro and Newquay	1,050	1,014	469	26	23	0	0	0	2,582
Cornwall	Truro Boscawen	3,765	Truro and Newquay	1,381	1,357	468	31	113	0	0	0	3,350
Cornwall	Truro Redannick	3,368	Truro and Newquay	1,022	966	749	27	73	0	0	0	2,837
Cornwall	Truro Tregolls	3,460	Truro and Newquay	1,066	1,154	544	60	54	0	0	0	2,878
Cornwall	Truro Trehaverne	3,445	Truro and Newquay	1,418	1,021	284	59	64	0	0	0	2,846
	Total	67,042		25,127	21,330	8,466	898	832	0	0	0	56,653

The full details of these calculations are given on the Truro and Falmouth seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Truro and Newquay

District	Ward	Electorate 2017	Old Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
New seat: Truro and Newquay
Cornwall	Chacewater, Kenwyn and Baldhu	3,195	Truro and Falmouth	1,411	736	217	42	18	0	0	0	2,424
Cornwall	Feock and Playing Place	3,952	Truro and Falmouth	1,798	832	323	24	22	0	0	0	2,999
Cornwall	Ladock, St Clement and St Erme	3,565	Truro and Falmouth	1,511	802	316	24	51	0	0	0	2,704
Cornwall	Mount Hawke and Portreath	3,589	Camborne and Redruth	1,134	1,011	387	0	46	0	0	0	2,578
Cornwall	Newlyn and Goonhavern	635	St Austell and Newquay	280	101	57	0	0	0	0	0	438
Cornwall	Newlyn and Goonhavern	3,302	Truro and Falmouth	1,467	763	232	22	19	0	0	0	2,503
Cornwall	Newquay Central	3,072	St Austell and Newquay	792	627	699	0	0	0	0	0	2,118
Cornwall	Newquay Pentire	3,197	St Austell and Newquay	995	565	645	0	0	0	0	0	2,205
Cornwall	Newquay Treloggan	3,326	St Austell and Newquay	1,072	604	617	0	0	0	0	0	2,293
Cornwall	Newquay Tretherras	2,836	St Austell and Newquay	964	504	488	0	0	0	0	0	1,956
Cornwall	Newquay Treviglas	3,289	St Austell and Newquay	1,013	738	518	0	0	0	0	0	2,269
Cornwall	Perranporth	3,726	Truro and Falmouth	1,358	1,090	320	27	31	0	0	0	2,826
Cornwall	Probus, Tregony and Grampound	547	St Austell and Newquay	213	109	55	0	0	0	0	0	377
Cornwall	Probus, Tregony and Grampound	2,746	Truro and Falmouth	967	820	223	56	17	0	0	0	2,083
Cornwall	Roseland	82	St Austell and Newquay	33	15	8	0	0	0	0	0	56
Cornwall	Roseland	2,827	Truro and Falmouth	1,055	813	206	54	16	0	0	0	2,144
Cornwall	St Agnes	437	Camborne and Redruth	157	110	41	0	6	0	0	0	314
Cornwall	St Agnes	3,254	Truro and Falmouth	1,098	737	590	17	27	0	0	0	2,469
Cornwall	St Columb Major	4,021	St Austell and Newquay	1,398	805	569	0	0	0	0	0	2,772
Cornwall	St Dennis and Nanpean	3,686	St Austell and Newquay	1,338	863	340	0	0	0	0	0	2,541
Cornwall	St Enoder	3,597	St Austell and Newquay	1,372	772	336	0	0	0	0	0	2,480
Cornwall	St Mawgan and Colan	2,806	St Austell and Newquay	1,350	360	225	0	0	0	0	0	1,935
Cornwall	Threemilestone and Gloweth	3,405	Truro and Falmouth	1,050	1,014	469	26	23	0	0	0	2,582
Cornwall	Truro Boscawen	4,417	Truro and Falmouth	1,381	1,357	468	31	113	0	0	0	3,350
Cornwall	Truro Redannick	3,740	Truro and Falmouth	1,022	966	749	27	73	0	0	0	2,837
Cornwall	Truro Tregolls	3,794	Truro and Falmouth	1,066	1,154	544	60	54	0	0	0	2,878
Cornwall	Truro Trehaverne	3,751	Truro and Falmouth	1,418	1,021	284	59	64	0	0	0	2,846
	Total	80,794		28,713	19,289	9,926	469	580	0	0	0	58,977

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Truro and Newquay. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.

Implied MP at 2017:	Sarah Newton (CON)
County/Area:	Cornwall (South West)
Electorate:	80,794
Turnout:	73.0%

Truro and Newquay: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Truro and Newquay: Overview

Introduction